Current status: Answered by Fergus Ewing on 12 March 2019
To ask the Scottish Government how Scottish agriculture would be affected by a no deal Brexit.
A no deal Brexit is likely to be catastrophic for Scottish agriculture, and could have a particularly severe impact on trade, especially for the sheep sector. Analysis from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute shows that in the longer term, if trade with the EU defaults to World Trade Organisation tariffs, while some sectors may see a rise in farmgate prices the price for sheep meat could fall by 30%. If the UK unilaterally reduced its tariffs, there would be substantial price falls in the longer term across all agricultural sectors – 45% for beef, 29% for sheep meat, 10-12% for dairy products, and 9-12% for pigs and poultry.
In addition, any depreciation in the exchange rate would make imports (including input costs) more expensive, although this would be beneficial for exporters.
A no deal Brexit would also have a major impact on the availability of labour within the industry - the latest estimates from Food Standards Scotland suggest that around 75% of the vets in Scotland’s abattoirs are non-UK EU nationals, while across the industry in 2017 there were over 9000 non-UK EU national seasonal migrant workers on which the horticulture industry is heavily reliant.