Chamber and committees

Further to the response given by Miri McAllan MSP, in a particularly challenging fiscal landscape, the Scottish Government has had to take difficult decisions to deliver balanced and sustainable spending plans for the 2024-25 financial year.

The UK Autumn Statement was a worst-case scenario for Scotland. Our block grant funding, derived from the UK Government’s spending decisions, has fallen by 1.2 per cent in real terms since 2022-23 and our capital spending power is due to contract by almost 10 per cent in real terms over five years.

A significant proportion of the expenditure in the Transport, Net Zero and Just Transition portfolio is legally and contractually committed, and I have ensured that those commitments are met in full in this budget as well as allocating funding to support critical maintenance and renewal expenditure to ensure that the people of Scotland have access to a safe and reliable transport system. This has been compounded by continuing high inflation, which has further reduced our room for manoeuvre.

The reduction in the rail services line reflects increased revenue, as passenger numbers recover, which reduces the subsidy required by ScotRail. This accompanies a significantly reduced capital budget required, reflecting the accounting and recognition of lease arrangements in year.

As Miri McAllan MSP indicated, the Equalities and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement and Carbon Assessment were published alongside this Budget. These impact assessments not only analyse the budget and the impact of the decisions contained in it, they also consider the process of making those decisions, and how we make sure the needs of all people are actively considered. The Transport, Net Zero and Just Transition portfolio was actively engaged in the analysis and production of these assessments.

The impact assessments for the E&S portfolio were prepared collectively and reflected in the Education and Skills portfolio analysis section in Annex B of the Equality and Fairer Scotland statement available at this link Scottish Budget - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) .

The UK Autumn Statement was a worst-case scenario for Scotland and confirmed that the Scottish Government Capital Block Grant is forecast to contract by almost 10% in real terms over 5 years (2023-24 to 2027-28). Capital spending pressures across the Scottish Government far exceed available funding. This means that it will take longer to deliver all our capital commitments. Difficult decisions, including reducing the ‘Travel Strategy and Innovation’ line, were also required in order to achieve a fiscally sustainable capital budget. As such, we targeted the limited capital funding available towards supporting employment and the economy, achieving our net zero ambitions and maintaining high-quality public services across Scotland.

A significant proportion of the expenditure in the portfolio is legally and contractually committed, and the budget ensures that those commitments are met in full in this budget as well as allocating funding to support critical maintenance and renewal expenditure to ensure that the people of Scotland have access to a safe and reliable transport system.

The budget process also considered equalities and fairer Scotland duties and progress towards our statutory targets for climate change and child poverty in prioritising the budget available to me. I refer to the Equalities and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement and Carbon Assessment published alongside this budget.

As outlined in the draft route map to achieving a 20% reduction in car km by 2030, achieving this commitment relies on a package of over 30 interventions. The route map does not apportion a specific reduction in car km to any single intervention such as the Bus Partnership Fund, which is one of a number of route map interventions which aim to encourage the use of public transport.

Bus Partnership Fund spend will proceed as planned for 2023-24 to complete the delivery of the bus infrastructure underway for the benefit of passengers and operators, and conclude appraisal work that could inform future investment. The pausing in 2024-5 presents an opportunity to recast bus priority work within a longer term more integrated public transport vision.

The Scottish Government is committed to making sustainable travel a more attractive option, which is why we invest over £2bn annually to support public transport including over £420 million allocated for bus services and concessionary fares in 2023-24 providing over 2 million people in Scotland with access to free bus travel. Our firm commitment to bus travel continues with almost £430 million in funding for concessionary travel and bus services planned for 2024-25.

I refer the member to the answer to question S6W-25249 on 19 February 2024. All answers to written Parliamentary Questions are available on the Parliament's website, the search facility for which can be found at https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/written-questions-and-answers .

It is anticipated that a modest budget would be required to support the initial development of a nationally-led mobility hubs framework.

Through best practice review and engagement with transport operators, service providers and local authorities across the country, this framework would provide guidance around delivery models for mobility hubs and the toolkit necessary to support the identification of appropriate locations, including the range of travel options suitable for different site types.

Further details on this topic can be found here: https://www.transport.gov.scot/media/52526/recommendation-22-framework-for-delivery-of-mobility-hubs.pdf

STPR2 will inform the Scottish Government’s transport investment programme in Scotland over the next 20 years. The timescale for the delivery of recommendation 22 has not yet been set. However, once this work commences, it is understood to take around 2 years to complete.

The majority of data against which we measure our national-level Active Travel Framework Indicators comes from the questions on transport and travel asked in the Scottish Household Survey (SHS), an annual, cross-sectional national survey looking at the composition, characteristics, attitudes and behaviour of private households. The survey includes a range of questions related to transport and travel. It also includes the travel diary, in which respondents provide detailed information on all the journeys they made the previous day.

At city-level, the Walking and Cycling Index (WACI) compiled every two years combines local walking and cycling data, modelling, and an independent representative survey of at least 1,100 respondents aged 16 and above in each place.

Covering cycling specifically, the Cycling Open Data (COD) portal combines cycling statistics from the Scottish Household Survey, Sustrans, Living Streets Scotland and Transport Scotland, with a National Monitoring Framework of real-time automatic cycle counter data and traffic survey data from across Scotland, alongside Cycling Scotland programme data from Bikeability Scotland, the Big Count, YouGov Surveys, and the Cycling Friendly awards.

Covering travel to schools specifically, the Hands Up Scotland Survey (HUSS) is a joint annual survey across all 32 Scottish local authorities asking pupils ‘How do you normally travel to school?’.

All of the above is supplemented by programme level data monitoring and evaluation carried out as a condition of grant by Transport Scotland Active Travel Delivery Partners (ATDPs).

STPR2 is a long-term vision of this government’s ambition for transport investment and highlights essential projects for the next two decades. Given that this is a 20-year programme, some elements will not commence immediately. The delivery of the STPR2 recommendations is subject to the funding allocations agreed by Parliament each year through the annual budget process.

The Scottish Government is facing a real terms cut in our capital budget. The flat and falling funding trajectory from the UK Government will and has significantly impacted our ability to deliver on our capital infrastructure commitments.

The UK Government have not inflation-proofed their Capital Budget which is forecast to result in 9.8% real terms cut in our capital funding over the medium term between 2023-24 and 2027-28.

Given the worsening outlook for capital, it will take more time to prepare the multi-year capital allocations and to refresh the infrastructure investment pipeline. We are therefore having to make tough decisions on our infrastructure projects pipeline to ensure we spend within our means while delivering for the people of Scotland.

Development of the STPR2 delivery plan is underway. This takes account of the current financial climate and is examining existing schemes across all modes in addition to the STPR2 recommendations.

Estimated costs for each recommendation was considered during detailed appraisal stage of the second Strategic Transport Projects Review.

The appraisal reports can be accessed here: Final technical report - December 2022 - STPR2 | Transport Scotland .

The Scottish Government is currently unable to develop a national integrated public transport timetable as it does not possess the powers to do so across all modes.

The majority of bus services in Scotland are commercially operated and the Scottish Government does not have control over their timetables. Where local authorities are subsidising a bus service, there are opportunities to influence the timetable for the parts of the service they are subsidising, however, this would depend on individual contracts. There are also opportunities to influence bus timetables through franchising and Bus Service Improvement Partnerships.

Where there are opportunities for Scottish Government influence, such as through contracted or managed ferry and rail services, we encourage development of integrated timetables where feasibly possible. An example of this is CalMac ferry timetables which includes details of connecting ScotRail services. We also encourage operators to engage with the public and stakeholders on proposed changes to timetables. For example, ScotRail launched a consultation in September 2023 on timetable options for the new Levenmouth Rail Link, and CalMac are required to consult twice-yearly with communities on changes to timetables.

Finally, to support integrated journeys, new Digital Travel Data Services (DTDS) have been procured that will enhance the data systems that sit behind Traveline Scotland and other journey planner providers, so that passengers can be more informed about their journey options. The new services will provide accurate, up-to-date and extensive public transport and travel information, helping passengers stay more informed about their journey options and costs across modes and operators.

The change in budget allocation to the Just Transition Fund is due to a reduction in capital and financial transactions funding allocations from the UK Government which the Fund relies on.

The UK Autumn Statement was the worst-case scenario for Scotland. The Chancellor had £27bn of fiscal headroom for the Autumn Statement, but rather than provide the funding needed in services and infrastructure, he cut taxes. These decisions have meant that the Scottish Government’s block grant has fallen in real terms by 1.2% since 2022-23 across resource and capital combined. Capital is due to contract by almost 10% in real terms over five years.

These decisions are not just an issue for the Scottish Budget. The UK Government’s ‘mini-budget’ in Autumn 2022 turbocharged the cost of living crisis, inflicting misery on individuals, communities and businesses. People have seen their living standards fall as a direct consequence of UK Government mismanagement of the economy over the past 13 years.

The Scottish Government remains committed to the 10-year Just Transition Fund programme and existing projects will continue to be funded in 2024-25. We will undertake an evaluation of phase one in this financial year aiming to commence the next phase in the following financial year.