Chamber and committees

Thank you very much for that. I understand the need to register with FIPS. Just to clarify: the reasons that you just cited—HMRC compliance and so on—mean that you could not retrospectively register with FIPS. Someone could nominally have taken on an apprentice and someone with the title of apprentice could be working with an employer, but, until the moment they are registered with FIPS, that cannot count towards their time served.

Thank you very much. You have helpfully clarified the matter for us. I appreciate that.

I have one final question based on what we have heard previously. Are you aware of multiple instances of there being a delay between someone starting an apprenticeship role and their registration? Were you familiar with that issue before it was raised with us last week?

Thank you very much. I will leave it there, convener. That has helpfully clarified the issue for us, and we are grateful to Katie Hutton for that detail.

Thank you, convener. I will address a couple of questions to Katie Hutton from SDS in the first instance, if that is okay; they are about the funding information processing system for apprenticeships. You might be aware that we took some evidence last week from employers and an issue with FIPS was flagged up in relation to the number of hours that an apprentice might complete before being registered on—[Inaudible.]

Sorry. Katie, could you start again?

On another, wider point, we will be moving pretty quickly in a matter of weeks into discussions around the spending review and its remit. Beyond the obvious overarching question of how to close the gap between the cost of current spending commitments and the resource that will be available, what are the questions that you believe we should be asking? What, specifically, should the remit of the spending review include beyond the obvious question of how we close what is a significant gap?

That is a useful clarification. Sticking with Alasdair Smith for a moment, I am looking for a small point of clarification to your answer to the convener about your projections for the cost of the Scottish child payments. You said that those numbers take into account a slight fall in the number of eligible children. Is that because the population of children will shrink or because of an assumption about reductions in child poverty levels, or is it both?

Thank you. I will stick with the issue of demographic change but ask about a different aspect, following on from John Mason’s question about falling labour market participation by young people. In part, that is due to falling birth rate, which is a long-term problem that we are familiar with in Scotland. However, we will face a significant difference in the next five years compared with the previous 15 because of a change in immigration policy post-Brexit. To what extent are you building in an assumption of a change in the number of young people in the workforce based on immigration changes as compared with that long-term issue of birth rate that we are familiar with?

On another point, Susan, I recognise that you are dealing with different papers, but figure 3.16 in our papers looks at the changes in pay-as-you-earn employment between the start of last year and October this year. We have already discussed the significant regional effect in the north-east, where there has been a significant decline in the number of employees in the oil and gas industry.

However, the other area that is in decline is eastern Scotland. Can you talk a bit about the particular regional forces that are driving that? We are all familiar with what is going on in the north-east, but I am interested in hearing an explanation of why eastern Scotland is also in quite a different position to the rest of the country.

I want to return to the point that Daniel Johnson explored about the income tax deficit. In figure 4 in your report, the broad trend from 2021-22 to 2026-27 is pretty clear, but I am interested in what you project for the year 2024-25, where the gap closes considerably and then begins to widen again for the rest of that period. What caused that change in direction in your projections?