Chamber and committees

I would like to stick with the question on behavioural effects, but look at it from a different perspective.

I am struggling somewhat to square the circle with regard to the amount of airtime that we are spending and the amount of political debate that we are having on the risk of negative behavioural effects as a result of income tax changes and the data that we now have from five years of increasingly significant divergence. Despite increasing divergence in our more progressive system, we have seen growth in earnings and thus direct growth in income tax receipts. As Professor Ulph has pointed out, we still have net positive migration into Scotland from the rest of the UK, and we are doing very well in foreign direct investment compared with everywhere other than London, I believe.

Are we, therefore, spending a disproportionate amount of time discussing the potential negative behavioural effects of income tax divergence compared with other factors that affect the budget in a much greater way? As Professor Roy has pointed out, we are talking about relatively small numbers in the grand scheme of a budget of £60 billion or so.

If HMRC is, at some point in the short to medium term, producing more longitudinal data, it might be worth while for the committee to get in touch with it to ask about the timescale for that, because it would inform quite a lot of our work.

Box 4.2 also mentions the extent to which the USA and Switzerland are relied on, because there is such a rich evidence base in both countries. What types of evidence-gathering work or studies that have taken place in other jurisdictions are not taking place—or have not taken place—in Scotland? I am thinking about work that Government could commission or which independent organisations could be encouraged to undertake.

Absolutely. Thanks very much.

That draws us into the debate about the fiscal framework and whether relative tax growth is the best measurement from Scotland’s perspective. We have discussed that before, and I am sure that we will continue to discuss it for some time to come.

Box 4.2 of your report has an interesting reference to the behavioural effects and how you estimate, measure and mitigate them. It also references the HMRC report from 2021 on the behavioural effects of tax changes in Scotland. I remember that report, but I cannot remember why HMRC produced it. Does it do so on a cyclical basis? Should we expect another one, or was it a one-off?

Thank you.

I am interested in a couple of issues, particularly how the ethical questions that we talked about earlier marry up with what Willie Rennie said about exams, assessments and how we measure things in schools. Chris Ranson gave an example. It is one thing to be able to tell whether a pupil has used something such as ChatGPT to help them with something in an essay for which there is a right and a wrong answer—for example, the name of a historical figure or a date is either right or wrong—but, on much more subjective issues, it can be harder for staff to drill down and tell whether a pupil has used an AI system, even if they know the pupil well.

When we get into territory that is incredibly subjective, how can we produce advice on distinguishing between what a pupil has produced and what AI might have produced? There might be no factual right or wrong answer for you to be able to check the hallucination points that have been mentioned.

On the point about time, I am interested in the thoughts of Chris Ranson, as a teacher, and of Ollie Bray, given his experience in the classroom. Realistically, there will never be the capacity in the system for a teacher to do that one-on-one assessment with every pupil, but there probably is the capacity for pupils in group settings to, in essence, cross-examine one another while being observed by a teacher, and that might raise red flags if it is clear that a pupil does not have a comprehension of what they presented.

Is there a way to develop such a system in a group setting in order to address workload issues? We can all envisage a system in which there is limitless capacity and, therefore, staff can address all such issues directly, but that is not the system that we have, and it is not realistic to think that we will ever have it. Is there a role for cross-examination by pupils and students themselves?

I will start with Louise Hunter. I am interested to know how you would characterise the Scottish Government’s overall response to Who Cares? Scotland’s “Paving the Way” report. Do you feel that the Government really grasped what was being said?

Is there—

Thanks very much.