Chamber and committees

I want to ask a more fundamental question about the prison estate. I appreciate your comments on HMP Greenock. I think that everyone accepts that elements of it are not fit for purpose; Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Prisons for Scotland has made that clear. Although we are a long time away from getting a replacement, it is important that any funds that can be are allocated to make immediate improvements, which would be most welcome by the staff and inmates. That is a parochial point, but it is an important one to make.

I will now look at the wider issues. I spoke in the previous committee meeting to Teresa Medhurst about a medium to long-term plan for the prison population. We know that the annual average population is sitting at quite a high number—the latest figure that I have is that there are more than 8,000 inmates. The figure has risen quite sharply over a number of years. In the context of the large backlog of court cases, of which a large percentage are for quite serious crimes—more specifically, those are of a sexual nature or involve gender-based violence—and because of the good work that the police and other agencies are doing to tackle the rise in serious organised crime, Ms Medhurst seemed to imply that the prison population is expected to rise further. It takes four, 10 or 15 years to build new estate. Is the allocated budget geared up to that potentially quite sharp, immediate rise in the prison population?

No. May I carry on? Sorry, but the police budget is a big topic.

Police Scotland states in its written submission that its five-year capital investment proposal

“would improve conditions and equipment for the wellbeing of officers and staff”

and

“enable a better service to be provided”.

It states:

“A lower settlement would require prioritisation to meet health and safety needs”—

in other words, the statutory requirement on the police—but would not allow it to deliver much-needed improvements to the fleet, to ICT and to the police estate, which many people said in their written submissions is not fit for purpose.

I return to the point that, for Police Scotland to fulfil its five-year plan to deliver and maintain the policing levels that we currently enjoy, it will need £466 million. Your capital spending review from this year suggests that it will get £218 million less than that. That is the shortfall that we and Police Scotland are talking about. If it does not receive the funding settlement that it is expecting or asking you for, which of those projects are unlikely to be delivered? Which aspects of police transformation and renewal will we not see in the next five years as a result of that capital ask not being met?

I am sure that that is something that the committee will consider, convener.

That is an important point, because the uplift in Covid consequentials to the Scottish budget was around £15 billion. It strikes me as unreasonable to expect that that level of increased funding, which was unique to the circumstances at the beginning of Covid, would necessarily set the benchmark for future budget years. It would be better to do a year-on-year comparison with a normal budget year in which there is an uplift in core funding as opposed to comparing core funding to Covid-related funding. That conflation has been made, and I am happy for the Scottish Parliament information centre to do some investigation into it and to inform members accordingly.

On the back of that, I turn to the capital funding budget. I want to touch on Police Scotland’s budget, because it is an important one to delve into and we took a lot of evidence on it. Can you explain how this year’s budget, or at least your asks of the finance secretary, will inform Police Scotland’s five-year capital investment plan? The figure that it gave us in its written submission is a

“total requirement of £466m with major and essential investment in the DDICT strategy, consolidating and improving the Estate and modernising the Fleet”.

Police Scotland’s understanding is that the Scottish Government’s capital spending review, which was published in January,

“suggests a funding level that is approximately £218 million short over a 5 year period”.

Can you update the committee on whether there will be a shortfall in Police Scotland’s capital budget?

Thank you, convener. I also have questions on prisons, but I will let others lead on that.

I will continue the line of questioning on the SFRS. Although the SFRS did not express a view or opinion on the budget, it provided statistics in its written submission, saying:

“As acknowledged in the report by Audit Scotland (2018), to bring its property, vehicles and other assets across Scotland up to a minimum satisfactory condition ... the SFRS requires an average annual investment of £80.4 million. The actual average annual investment over the last three financial years on property, vehicles and equipment was £30.2 million.”

Therefore, although the SFRS has not expressed an opinion, it has enlightened us about the reality of its budget. Does that mean that its assets are not in the minimum satisfactory condition? How confident can we be that future budgets, particularly for capital spend, will ensure that we have a fit-for-purpose Fire and Rescue Service over the next 10 years, which is what the service asked for?

Just to put that in context, the justice budget is about £2.9 billion, and we are only now, at the end of the meeting, talking about supporting victims with a budget of £18 million. Therefore, you can see why, relatively speaking, to the outside world, it may seem that the focus is in the wrong place.

I am glad that you mentioned the victim surcharge fund, because your Government’s expectation was that it would generate £1 million a year—that was in your 2016 manifesto. We know that it has generated only £157,000. Why has there been such a shortfall, and what confidence can we have that, in future, it will generate meaningful amounts of money to support the victims of crime?

Yes, please.

I will start by asking you to clarify something that you said in your opening statement about the overall budget, because it puts the justice budget into context. I understand that the block grant for 2022-23 will rise from £36.7 billion to £40.6 billion—a £3.9 billion uplift—which is derived from £3.4 billion in resource funding and £400 million in capital funding. That seems to contradict your opening statement. Could you clarify that?

Good morning, Lord Advocate, and thank you for attending the committee. I put on record our thanks to staff in the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service, who have worked under tremendously difficult circumstances to keep our judicial system operating fairly and justly.

I want to drill down into some of the comments in your written submission. On your asks for the Government as we scrutinise the forthcoming budget, the third bullet point in the section on “Looking ahead” says:

“additional funding for court recovery must be sustained. It will take many years to remove the trial backlog”.

Can you give the committee an indication of the scale of the backlog, the potential time that it will take to clear it and, more important, the analysis that has been done by the COPFS on the cost of clearing the backlog? It is clear that it will require a year-on-year uplift in the budget. The uplift was 17 per cent last year. What percentage will you need this year to ensure that you are able to clear that backlog quickly, efficiently and fairly?

Thank you. I will forgive the lengthy answers, because the question was a high-level one.

You have touched on an important issue. We are talking about budget numbers and finance, but people lie behind them. You have made that point eloquently, and I know that the committee will discuss those areas in more detail. However, the numbers are important, too.

It sounds as though the backlog situation is extremely worrying, and it sounds a little as though you are facing a perfect storm. You had a rising number of cases before Covid—it is clear that the pandemic has added to those challenges—and rising levels of vacancies. People have struggled to recruit and fill posts, given the time lag that is required to take new entrants into the profession and train them to levels to manage very complex—and increasingly complex—cases.

I want to ask about that. Perhaps people and places are the biggest costs to you at the moment. Your vacancy rate is currently 12.8 per cent, and you have stated that that will be down to 0.2 per cent by March 2022. That is only five months away. How realistic is that? What will it take to get that 12.8 per cent down to practically nothing, which is what you are forecasting?