Chamber and committees

To clarify that point, are you suggesting that the civil service requires additional resources to ensure that it can do its job properly and effectively? You mentioned that the part of the inquiry about why the events happened might reflect institutional issues. Is that correct?

Good morning, Dr Lombardi. You have correctly identified that forecasting is by no means an exact science—I could not agree more with that comment. From your international expertise and considerable experience, do you believe that there are countries around the world where the accuracy of forecasting is a little better, because of the modelling that is used? Would we be able to apply some of the best practice to what the Scottish Fiscal Commission does?

That is very helpful. One of the bigger challenges is about the timescale and the lag between the different sets of statistics coming out, albeit that they are independent. The committee has certainly had some difficulty with that challenge, in that witnesses have given evidence to the committee arguing that their job is very difficult because of that time lag. It is an interesting challenge.

You have said that communication is absolutely key. Included in that, would you say that there is scope for better communication between the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Scottish Fiscal Commission? Are there areas of that communication, which is obviously critical to the economic analysis, that could be improved?

You were.

Is there any scope to reduce the timescales between the two sets of forecasts, which obviously are extremely important and have huge implications for economic policy making? Would you like some effort to be made to reduce the timescale?

I have three questions if I may, permanent secretary, all very much on the theme of transparency, which we have just been discussing. You have been up front about your belief that what happened over the ferry issue was regrettable. You and Ms Fraser have outlined what steps are being taken to ensure that that does not happen again.

From what you have read, why do you think there was a problem of missing documentation?

Thank you. I was not asking you to reflect on the individuals concerned.

If we are going to ensure that this does not happen again and that the processes that are being put in place are much more robust, it is surely important to understand exactly what went wrong, not just in the ferries situation but in relation to the other issues to which Mr Johnson has referred. Audit Scotland has been on this trail for quite some time, saying that there is not enough transparency in the Scottish Government.

One of our regrets as a committee is that we did not interview your predecessor, and I hope that you can understand why we wanted to. We wanted to get to the hard facts about why the ferries situation happened—not the implications of what has happened since, but why it happened then. I hope that you can understand that a very important part of moving forward is having a good-quality understanding of why documentation was missing and of what can be done to ensure that that never happens again. Do you accept that?

I asked the question because, if we measure forecasting over a period of time, some countries appear to my mind to be more accurate, shall we say, than others. I am interested to know why that is. However, that is perhaps for another day.

One of the challenges that this committee comes across, as do many policy makers in Scotland, is that we are presented with two sets of forecasting—namely, that of the Scottish Fiscal Commission and that of the Office for Budget Responsibility—and there is a time lag between them, which can complicate things. When we get one set of statistics, other things can happen by the time we get the next set. Will you tell us a bit about how you intend to address that issue?

Thank you.