Chamber and committees

Thank you.

I very much agree with what was said in the previous conversation. It would be irresponsible if we were seen to be feathering our own nests.

I return to the issue of commissioners, because it is vital that the public have complete transparency on what their money is being used for. In your note to us, you mention that the additional money that is being sought by the Scottish Human Rights Commission is about reorganisation and staffing structure, whereas the money for the ethical standards commission is about getting an additional 7.4 full-time-equivalent staff. Do we have more information about what the new structure is for the SHRC, and do you know what the 7.4 FTE staff in the ethical standards commission will be doing?

However, it is not correct to say that there was not a single penny more from the UK Government.

Is the Scottish Fiscal Commission wrong to say that there are those Barnett consequentials?

That is helpful. I am sure that we will have a look at that evidence.

A lot of economic commentators have said that Scotland needs more higher-paid jobs to help with labour market flexibility, to improve productivity and to ensure that we get a better tax take. The committee is interested in finding ways in which Scotland can make best use of all its talents and ensure that more people go into the sort of higher-paid work that would benefit the economy hugely. It would be helpful to hear the panel’s reflections on that.

I return to the question of improving productivity and wellbeing, which is one of the central themes of your research. Earlier, my colleague Michelle Thomson asked you about where we can get the biggest bangs for the buck when it comes to improving productivity, and you provided a couple of examples.

I wish to develop the point a little further. We are in a very difficult situation across the UK, including Scotland, because a sizeable number of people, particularly those in their 50s and 60s, are coming out of the labour market. That will obviously have significant implications and give rise to difficulties further down the line with regard to productivity and tax take. I think that Professor Muscatelli talked earlier about skills and labour market flexibilities. What, in your opinion, do we have to do to drive greater flexibility in the labour market, while ensuring that we retain more people in the market than might be the case now?

I assume, therefore, that you would like the funding to follow that priority area, because it would be helpful to spend more money on innovation and the university sector, for example, and on ensuring that we drive towards those kinds of productive industries of the future.

Finally, it is generally agreed that the national performance framework is a good thing to have, but how easy is it to measure what the best outcomes are in it, and how much is that allied to Scottish Government policy?

I absolutely understand the arithmetic to which you are referring. My point is that the knock-on effect might be that some people are deterred from going into the market. Therefore, the estimated £34 million of tax revenue perhaps does not have such certainty over the period, because the situation might put people off coming into the market.

I understand that. It is always difficult to measure expectations and what people are going to do.

I turn to inflation, which is obviously one of the most important things to try to address. Professor Breedon rightly said that high inflation is due to cost factors, and that that particularly affects people on lower incomes. I want to relate that to Professor Roy’s point in his introduction that the expectation is that next year inflation will fall “sharply”—I think that that is the word that he used. What is the reason for thinking that it will fall sharply, given that the cost factors will continue, particularly if the war in Ukraine continues and the supply chains still have very high prices? What certainty do we have that inflation will fall sharply, rather than just coming down, given that the cost factor is still very strong?