Chamber and committees

I am sure that we will scrutinise the financial memorandum carefully.

Does that have a cost?

Will you work with the Scottish Fiscal Commission on that data?

Obviously, that will be essential, as it has been with the two existing taxes. It will also be very helpful to us.

Good morning. I will pick up the theme of the principles of the Smith commission, which are inherent within both the 2016 fiscal framework and this one.

The cabinet secretary will know that the witnesses who have come to the committee plus the three Davids—Iser, Bell and Phillips—are very clear that there are tensions within those principles; specifically, that there is a tension between taxpayer fairness and the principle of no detriment. Does the Scottish Government accept that very strong tension? Out of those two—taxpayer fairness and no detriment—would you focus on one of them as the particular priority?

There is a case to be made; it has been put to us by witnesses that there were different economic circumstances when those arrangements were first set up. However, there is an on-going relationship between the UK and the Scottish Governments that determines that, over the next period, things could be looked at again.

On that point, cabinet secretary, in the chamber on 27 September, you were very complimentary about the Scottish Government’s relationship with the UK Government. You spoke warmly about the improved relations between the Scottish Government and the UK Government and you mentioned John Glen. Are the negotiations in a better place than they were before?

The tensions have been flagged up a lot and there are obviously debates to be had about whether the Smith commission principles need to be slightly revised as we go into further fiscal frameworks. Nobody has said to us that all the Smith principles can be achieved at the same time, so it is about the balance that the cabinet secretary described earlier, of deciding what the priorities must be when choosing principles.

As we go into a possible five-year period before we have to look at the fiscal framework again, when, as I understand it, both Governments will have the facility to make suggestions, will the Scottish Government make suggestions about revising the Smith commission principles?

Not at all. It is good to hear that, cabinet secretary, because that has not always been the case, particularly when it comes to financial discussions and the fiscal framework. I, and the public, think that it is very important that Governments work together to get the best deal for Scotland, so I place on the record that I think that that is encouraging.

That is very helpful. I think that the committee would agree with the statement that forecasting is an inexact science. Obviously, we have to accept that. However, is there anything that we can do through budget analysis and fiscal framework analysis to ensure that the forecasting error is minimal?

The Financial Times contained an interesting article about this a couple of weeks ago. The presentation of the data is making life very hard for the OBR and the SFC. That matters to us big time because the data is absolutely crucial not only for informing us what the current economic picture is but for informing the Government when it sets policy. Can we do anything else to help to reduce the forecasting error, which obviously has created difficulties between the OBR and the SFC, certainly over the past few years?