Chamber and committees

I have pages of questions, but I will let other committee members in after my next question, which is on a different topic: international supply pressures. Your forecast says that

“we assume there are no future waves of rapidly rising ... deaths and hospitalisations”

but that

“There are ... ongoing international supply pressures which combined with domestic recruitment challenges present risks to our forecasts.”

The impacts are from not just Covid but Brexit. How do you quantify the risks from supply pressures? We have heard about significant rises in raw material prices, for example, which could have an impact on the ability to deliver the Scottish Government’s capital programme.

There is a significant mismatch in the labour market between skills and geographic location.

We will certainly deliberate on that in our next private session, which is about to start in a few minutes, when we consider our work programme.

I thank both our guests today, particularly the cabinet secretary for answering so many questions in such depth, particularly after a session at the Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee. I realise that it has been a very heavy morning for you, so I hope you will have a wee break now before the rest of the day’s proceedings.

Thank you. I open up for questions from the committee.

That is clear.

Your report says that house price stability will be established in the current financial year and that prices will grow in subsequent years. How did you come to that conclusion? House prices appear to be rising quite significantly.

I asked a question about the possibility of deferred funding, and members asked about the impacts on a number of areas of the Scottish budget. You talked about how difficult it was, as did members, with additional funding coming in at a time when local authorities were agreeing their own budgets and the council tax settlement was being agreed. Should we get into that situation—I hope that we do not, because I hope that the UK Government will do as it has done previously and agree a carry-over if necessary—do you have any shovel-ready projects available that would allow you to provide additional support to businesses or other areas of the economy, so that that money is used effectively?

Just look at the most recent block grant adjustment—it was only £34 million.

Straight in at the deep end.

We will hear from two sets of witnesses today. The first panel is from the Scottish Fiscal Commission, with whom we will discuss a number of recently published reports, including the commission’s economic and fiscal forecasts. Members have received copies of those reports, along with a private briefing paper from the financial scrutiny unit and the Scottish Parliament information centre.

I welcome from the Scottish Fiscal Commission Dame Susan Rice DBE, chair; Professor Alasdair Smith, commissioner; and John Ireland, chief executive. We will also be joined remotely by Professor Francis Breedon, who is also an SFC commissioner. If members have any questions for Professor Breedon, or if Dame Susan wishes to bring him in at any point, they should make that clear so that our broadcasting operators can activate Professor Breedon’s microphone.

I intend to allow 75 minutes for the session. Before we open up to questions from members, I invite Dame Susan Rice to make a short opening statement.

That will mean that more people become higher-rate taxpayers.