Chamber and committees

There are a number of points in the question and scenario that you have put to me. The first point is that a key response is the necessity of ensuring that baseline health protection measures are habitually followed by everybody in all circumstances, including when going for a polymerase chain reaction test. Important measures that should be applied include ensuring that people are wearing face coverings in the appropriate settings and following the basic hand hygiene measures. All those measures are critical at all times. Members will be aware that, in our public messaging in Parliament and in our wider public messaging through television advertising and so on, the Government is regularly reinforcing those messages.

The second point is that the greatest care must be taken by individuals when going for PCR tests. In the scenario that you put to me, if a whole carload of people from the same family are being tested, it is understandable that they are all in the car. However, I encourage only the people who need a PCR test to go, and to observe all the hygiene measures that are appropriate in such circumstances.

Finally, when it comes to observing self-isolation, the requirements could not be clearer. If an individual has symptoms or cause to secure a PCR test, or if they have undertaken a lateral flow test and tested positive, that should instantaneously bring about a change in behaviour, because that person is potentially infectious. That individual must take every care in their movements and in observing the appropriate restrictions to ensure that they minimise the risk of transmission.

I assure the individuals who have contacted the committee that those messages are uppermost in the Government’s communications.

Clinical points might mean that there is no justification for doing so because there may be sufficient vaccine protection for a sufficient length of time. The disease is new, so clinicians and scientists are trying to work their way through to the best answer. Their judgment was that the gap should be six months. The JCVI has revised that to three months.

No, the lateral flow test will not appear in the app.

The app has been revised to include the booster jag; we expect that to be completed and the update to be available in early December. A critical date is 15 December, when a number of European countries will make it mandatory for booster jags to be evidenced on Covid vaccine certificates, and the update will be in place by then.

It is but, to go back to my two key words—proportionate and precautionary—it is also a recognition that, in the light of omicron, it is necessary to take the precautionary stance of moving to an earlier time for the booster jag. That strikes me as a rational decision for the JCVI to arrive at.

Perhaps Professor Leitch will want to add something.

I accept those points and that is why I make my plea to people. I do not think that it is just 18 and 19-year-olds—

You raise the fundamental dilemmas that we wrestle with all the time. That is why I said in my opening remarks that we are taking a proportionate and precautionary approach to handling the situation.

Modelling of the pandemic’s likely course is undertaken regularly, and a variety of variables are considered. A few weeks ago, the modelling looked at the potential impact of the 26th United Nations climate change conference of the parties—COP26—and it has covered the impact of winter and all sorts of scenarios.

The modelling gives central, better and worse scenarios, on the basis of the virus’s prevalence and circulation. We hope for the better scenario, we prepare for the central scenario and we hope that we do not reach the worse scenario. Different actions are required if we face the better, worse or central scenario. That is why I used the word “proportionate” in talking about our judgment.

The precautionary approach is important, too. If we look at the pandemic today in Scotland, we see that case numbers are high but fairly flat. The figures for the past seven days are slightly down on those for the previous seven days. The hospitalisation rate of Covid patients today is slightly lower than it was, although the figure is still more than 700. If those 700 people were not in hospital with Covid, we could provide other treatments for 700 patients.

There is a careful judgment to be made about the proportionate steps to take. If omicron turns out to be more transmissible than delta, there will be more cases. If the level of serious illness from omicron is no different from that of delta, a relatively small percentage of cases will be hospitalised, but that will involve more people if the number of cases is higher. That will place even more pressure on the national health service and will mean that services are under pressure.

If the level of serious illness does not change but the volume changes significantly, we will have to take more dramatic action. I have no justification for that today because, although I can look at the omicron scenarios, a compelling evidence base does not yet exist for taking more severe measures. It might well exist in the future, so the Government will keep the situation under constant review.

We will look carefully to the recommendations that come from the JCVI in that respect.

It is always helpful to have experts to hand, convener.

I would make two points in response to Mr Ewing’s question. First, a further instrument that will come to the committee in due course will look at circumstances in which there might be recovery of redress payments. The instrument under consideration does not affect that matter, but the further instrument will deal with recovery of such payments in cases where concerns have been raised. As I have said, that will come before the committee in due course.

Secondly, if it is suspected that an application has been made fraudulently, the matter will be dealt with under common-law powers on the handling of fraud issues. The matter could potentially be referred to Police Scotland for consideration as a criminal offence, in line with common-law powers.

Yes, that is correct.