Letter from Minister for Public Finance, Planning and Community Wealth to the Convener of 29 September 2021
Dear Kenneth
I am pleased to be able to share with you the fourth annual Fiscal Framework Outturn Report. This document will enable Parliament to scrutinise Scotland’s public finances, in keeping with the recommendations of the Budget Process Review Group.
This Outturn Report contains information on Income Tax, Land and Buildings Transaction Tax, Scottish Landfill Tax, Social Security expenditure, borrowing levels and the operation of the Scotland Reserve. It also contains information on the impact of Fines, Fees, and Fixed Penalties and Proceeds of Crime.
The Scottish Fiscal Commission recently published forecasts of tax revenues and social security expenditure on 26 August, yet the latest available forecasts of the Block Grant Adjustments are based on the OBR’s forecasts of UK tax revenues and social security expenditure at the UK Budget in March 2021, as no forecasts have been published since then.
Due to these timing differences of the forecasts, comparisons of the latest available forecasts and BGAs and the resultant net effect should be interpreted with a large degree of caution.
As the publication of the majority of final outturn data has been delayed until later this year, this report uses provisional Scottish outturn for 2019-20 Income Tax and 2020-21 Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT), Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT) and Social Security expenditure. The equivalent BGA data is also on a provisional basis. An update will be sent to the Committee once this data is finalised later in the year.
I trust that the Committee will find the information contained in this report helpful.
Tom Arthur